__MK__tabaqat · StrataCommerce & Real Estate
Site Selection

Which site —
and how sure are we?

Every site-selection platform sells you a score. None of them sells you the stability of that score. This one shows what the number is made of, and exactly how far your own assumptions would have to move before a different site wins.

Live demo on real Cal OES · Caltrans · Esri-enriched census data · keyless · sovereign
© 2026 Tabaqat · Built on Strata — sovereign geospatial applications.
The gap

The committee never argues about the data.

It argues about the weights. How much is traffic worth against household income? Does a fourth competitor matter more than 4,000 extra households?

Today that argument ends the same way every time: an analyst goes away, re-runs the model overnight, and comes back with a second number. Nobody in the room can see which assumption moved it, or how close the call was.

The market's own comparison literature names the three axes on which these platforms differ: scoring transparency, data depth, and who can actually run the analysis. Transparency is top of that list — and it is structurally the hardest thing for a licensed black box to sell.

$12k – $50kper year, reported for enterprise foot-traffic analytics. Buxton is reported at ~$20k+. What you get for it is a score — and a model you are not shown.

"Why is this 78 and not 71, and what would make site B win?" is the question the room actually asks. It is the one question the tooling cannot answer.

The insight

The answer is dominated by an assumption nobody re-examines.

This is not a suspicion — it is the documented failure mode of the field's gold-standard method. The Huff model (1963) assigns every household a probability of shopping at each competing store. It is what makes honest cannibalisation and white-space work possible.

Its weakness is the trade area you feed it. Ring, drive-time, gravity and customer-derived boundaries each distort demand in a different direction — and the choice between them is made once, early, usually by whoever set up the template.

The trade-area definition, not the data, drives the conclusion. One unexamined assumption, quietly deciding everything downstream.

So build the app around the assumption

If the assumption is what decides the answer, then the assumption belongs in the navigation — not buried in a settings panel.

Make every weight a visible dial. Decompose every score into what each criterion contributed. And between any two sites, state the smallest single change that would reverse them.

That number is the product.

The Swing Slate

A ranked argument, not a leaderboard.

Every row breaks its score into the five weighted criterion contributions — you can see the bar is made of demand, spending power, traffic, competition and access.

Between adjacent rows sits the flip margin: the gap in points, and the single smallest weight change that reverses that pair. Under 8 points it is marked FRAGILE — treat those two sites as tied on this evidence.

Drag any weight and the whole slate re-sorts live. The committee's argument happens on screen, not overnight.

#1Elk Grove Blvd @ Bruceville Rd80.5
ROBUST gap 21.0 pts — #2 needs Household demand ↑ 61.4
#2Laguna Blvd @ Franklin Blvd59.5
FRAGILE gap 7.9 pts — #3 overtakes if Traffic ↑ 8.0
#3Sheldon Rd @ Power Inn Rd51.6
Household demand Spending power Traffic exposure Competitive pressure Transit access
The proof

A margin you can't verify is decoration.

So we verified it, against live data, in both directions. The regression suite takes the shipped functions straight out of the app and drives the whole loop over five real candidate sites.

4 / 4predicted flips actually reversed their pair when the change was applied
½the predicted change does not reverse the top pair — so the margin is a real threshold, not a plausible number
95live-data assertions green — 81 regression, 14 driving the signature loop end to end

And a ROBUST verdict holds: more than doubling the competition weight (20 → 45) left the order intact — exactly as the app predicted before anything was touched.

The data

California already publishes the whole spine. Keyless.

Demand

9,107 tracts, 164 Esri-enriched fields — households, disposable income, a nine-bucket income distribution, and five-year projections.

Supply

82,905 retail POI with real NAICS codes and brands. 13,363 in grocery alone.

Exposure

13,919 Caltrans count rows — about 6,960 real stations once de-duplicated.

Access

20,558 High Quality Transit Areas and 48,662 stops — the layer that decides AB 2097 parking relief.

All CORS-open, no API key, no subscription. The catalogue behind the app indexes 2,339 California services, 321 role-tagged across 11 siting roles.

California also makes siting statutory: AB 2097 removes parking minimums within ½ mile of a major transit stop, while AB 2011 and SB 6 turn the same commercial pad into a by-right housing site. The retail parcel you are evaluating has a competing use with a legal fast lane.

Why "just use open data" isn't the whole job

Four ways this data will quietly lie to you.

Traffic counts are stored as text

Sort them and the statewide maximum comes back as 99,000. The true peak is 335,000 on I-805. A numeric filter doesn't just mis-sort — it errors outright.

Every count station appears twice

Byte-identical duplicate rows at the same postmile. Any "stations near this site" figure is exactly double unless you key on route + postmile.

The only open foot-traffic data is the lockdown

The visit columns on California's retail POI layer cover 19 April – 9 May 2020. They measure the pandemic trough, not the market. We bind the geometry and NAICS, and quarantine every visit column.

Counting whole census tracts inflates demand

At our anchor site, 17 of 34 contributing tracts straddle the boundary. Counting them whole overstates households by +35.1% — larger than most of the gaps the ranking turns on.

Each of these is reproduced as a live assertion in the test suite, so the app cannot silently regress into any of them.

Scope

What it deliberately will not tell you.

The industry's headline metric is the leakage/surplus factor — demand against supply, +100 to −100, per NAICS group. We do not compute it, and that is a decision rather than a gap.

Its supply side needs actual retail receipts. California's only public source reports them by the permit holder's city, not the store's location — headquarters and online sellers distort city totals, small cities are suppressed, and the categories aren't NAICS.

Modelling that and calling it leakage would fabricate the one number a committee would act on. So the app says so, on screen, in the packet, and in the splash.

Not in scope, by design

  • A sales forecast
  • A calibrated Huff model or cannibalisation study
  • A leakage/surplus figure
  • Observed foot traffic
  • A legal determination on parking or zoning

Every number the app does print carries its source and its vintage — and the whole weighting travels in the URL, so a packet is reproducible from its link.

Coexistence, not replacement

Where this sits next to the incumbents.

The category todayThe Swing Slate
Suitability scoringWeighted criteria including income and traffic — the workflow is rightSame workflow, on keyless open data, with the arithmetic shown
ConfidenceA score. Re-run the model to test an assumptionThe flip margin, live, for every adjacent pair
Who can run itAn analyst or a GIS departmentA two-person real-estate team
Open · expand · closeExpansion is the product; closure rarely isThe same score over your own estate, sorted worst-first
DeploymentSaaS, licensed data, per-seatMIT, on-prem or sovereign, runs on Strata or ArcGIS

A retailer who already owns Business Analyst should push its Retail MarketPlace numbers into this app as extra criteria — the criterion list is data-driven, not hard-coded. We can show the arithmetic because we have nothing proprietary to protect inside it.

__MK__tabaqat · StrataCommerce & Real Estate
Site Selection

Rank the sites.
Then show how sure you are.

95live-data assertions green
0API keys · subscriptions · licensed layers on the critical path
2,339California services catalogued, 321 role-tagged

Built by describing it — no code written by hand. The same recipe re-targets to any market with a census, a road network and a POI layer.

© 2026 Tabaqat · Screening and ranking — not a sales forecast. Esri and other marks used nominatively.
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